Информационный бюллетень Cover Story: Как мы выбирали изображение для обложки

Мысль, лежащая в основе нашего проекта о гибридной войне России A: Escalation (model probability 51%, not a guarantee) — Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia's ongoing military build-up on its border with Ukraine escalates into active deployment. NATO member states, facing pressure from public opinion and political allies, increase military presence in Eastern Europe. This triggers a diplomatic impasse, as Russia demands guarantees of NATO expansion eastward. * Confirmation indicators: A significant escalation of Russian military activity near Ukraine's borders (e.g., increased troop deployments) with no clear indication of de-escalation efforts by either side. The deployment of advanced weaponry and the establishment of defensive fortifications along the border. * Time horizon: 10 to 30 days. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The geopolitical situation remains tense but stable, with ongoing diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalation. The Eco B: Status Quo (model probability 36%, not a guarantee) — Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia's ongoing military build-up on its border with Ukraine escalates into active deployment. NATO member states, facing pressure from public opinion and political allies, increase military presence in Eastern Europe. This triggers a diplomatic impasse, as Russia demands guarantees of NATO expansion eastward. * Confirmation indicators: A significant escalation of Russian military activity near Ukraine's borders (e.g., increased troop deployments) with no clear indication of de-escalation efforts by either side. The deployment of advanced weaponry and the establishment of defensive fortifications along the border. * Time horizon: 10 to 30 days. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The geopolitical situation remains tense but stable, with ongoing diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalation. The Eco C: De-escalation (model probability 13%, not a guarantee) — Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia's ongoing military build-up on its border with Ukraine escalates into active deployment. NATO member states, facing pressure from public opinion and political allies, increase military presence in Eastern Europe. This triggers a diplomatic impasse, as Russia demands guarantees of NATO expansion eastward. * Confirmation indicators: A significant escalation of Russian military activity near Ukraine's borders (e.g., increased troop deployments) with no clear indication of de-escalation efforts by either side. The deployment of advanced weaponry and the establishment of defensive fortifications along the border. * Time horizon: 10 to 30 days. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The geopolitical situation remains tense but stable, with ongoing diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalation. The Eco

Информационный бюллетень Cover Story: Как мы выбирали изображение для обложки

Сценарии цепочки

Эскалация

Статус-кво

Деэскалация