Позиция Путина по мораторию на смертную казнь остается твердой — представитель Кремля

Президент Владимир Путин в конце 2024 года заявил, что российские власти не планируют вводить смертную казнь даже на фоне проведения в стране специальной военной операции. A: Escalation (model probability 48%, not a guarantee) — Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Putin's firm stance on capital punishment fuels escalating rhetoric from Western powers. The US and UK issue further sanctions, targeting Russian defense industries and financial institutions. The Kremlin retaliates with increased military deployments along the Ukrainian border, increasing tensions in Eastern Europe. * Confirmation indicators: Increased frequency of diplomatic clashes between Russia and the West, followed by public statements from high-ranking officials in both countries indicating a willingness to escalate. * Time horizon: 30 days to 6 months Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The Kremlin maintains its position on capital punishment, with no significant change in policy or rhetoric. The international community continues to express concern over the situation, but diplomatic effo B: Status Quo (model probability 38%, not a guarantee) — Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Putin's firm stance on capital punishment fuels escalating rhetoric from Western powers. The US and UK issue further sanctions, targeting Russian defense industries and financial institutions. The Kremlin retaliates with increased military deployments along the Ukrainian border, increasing tensions in Eastern Europe. * Confirmation indicators: Increased frequency of diplomatic clashes between Russia and the West, followed by public statements from high-ranking officials in both countries indicating a willingness to escalate. * Time horizon: 30 days to 6 months Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The Kremlin maintains its position on capital punishment, with no significant change in policy or rhetoric. The international community continues to express concern over the situation, but diplomatic effo C: De-escalation (model probability 14%, not a guarantee) — Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Putin's firm stance on capital punishment fuels escalating rhetoric from Western powers. The US and UK issue further sanctions, targeting Russian defense industries and financial institutions. The Kremlin retaliates with increased military deployments along the Ukrainian border, increasing tensions in Eastern Europe. * Confirmation indicators: Increased frequency of diplomatic clashes between Russia and the West, followed by public statements from high-ranking officials in both countries indicating a willingness to escalate. * Time horizon: 30 days to 6 months Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The Kremlin maintains its position on capital punishment, with no significant change in policy or rhetoric. The international community continues to express concern over the situation, but diplomatic effo

Позиция Путина по мораторию на смертную казнь остается твердой — представитель Кремля

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