Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: US-Iran negotiations stall, leading to renewed sanctions and heightened geopolitical tensions. This triggers increased risk aversion in global markets, causing a sharp sell-off across sectors, particularly energy and defense stocks. * Confirmation indicators: US Treasury Secretary's public statement expressing concerns over Iran's nuclear program and the UN Security Council voting on new sanctions against Iran. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The US and Iran continue negotiations, and a preliminary agreement is reached, leading to a temporary easing of tensions. This creates a positive sentiment in global markets, resulting in sustained gains across sectors, particularly technology and renewable energy stocks. * Confirmation indicators: Announcement of a frame (12% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: US-Iran negotiations stall, leading to renewed sanctions and heightened geopolitical tensions. This triggers increased risk aversion in global markets, causing a sharp sell-off across sectors, particularly energy and defense stocks. * Confirmation indicators: US Treasury Secretary's public statement expressing concerns over Iran's nuclear program and the UN Security Council voting on new sanctions against Iran. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The US and Iran continue negotiations, and a preliminary agreement is reached, leading to a temporary easing of tensions. This creates a positive sentiment in global markets, resulting in sustained gains across sectors, particularly technology and renewable energy stocks. * Confirmation indicators: Announcement of a frame (64% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: US-Iran negotiations stall, leading to renewed sanctions and heightened geopolitical tensions. This triggers increased risk aversion in global markets, causing a sharp sell-off across sectors, particularly energy and defense stocks. * Confirmation indicators: US Treasury Secretary's public statement expressing concerns over Iran's nuclear program and the UN Security Council voting on new sanctions against Iran. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The US and Iran continue negotiations, and a preliminary agreement is reached, leading to a temporary easing of tensions. This creates a positive sentiment in global markets, resulting in sustained gains across sectors, particularly technology and renewable energy stocks. * Confirmation indicators: Announcement of a frame (24% model probability, not a guarantee)

Акции держатся на рекордно высоком уровне на фоне оптимизма по поводу сделки США и Ирана | Обзор Bloomberg от 29 мая 2026 г.

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