Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% The Iran-Saudi conflict escalates with increased military action and broader regional involvement. This leads to heightened geopolitical tensions, impacting global markets. A spike in oil prices due to supply disruptions is observed within the next week, triggering a market correction in equities and bonds. This will likely lead to an increase in uncertainty and volatility across financial markets globally. * Increased military activity between Iran and Saudi Arabia with reports of escalation from multiple sources. * A significant spike in oil prices (over 15%) within the next week, exceeding pre-conflict levels. * A sudden increase in geopolitical risk premiums across various asset classes. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% The conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia r (54% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% The Iran-Saudi conflict escalates with increased military action and broader regional involvement. This leads to heightened geopolitical tensions, impacting global markets. A spike in oil prices due to supply disruptions is observed within the next week, triggering a market correction in equities and bonds. This will likely lead to an increase in uncertainty and volatility across financial markets globally. * Increased military activity between Iran and Saudi Arabia with reports of escalation from multiple sources. * A significant spike in oil prices (over 15%) within the next week, exceeding pre-conflict levels. * A sudden increase in geopolitical risk premiums across various asset classes. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% The conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia r (33% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% The Iran-Saudi conflict escalates with increased military action and broader regional involvement. This leads to heightened geopolitical tensions, impacting global markets. A spike in oil prices due to supply disruptions is observed within the next week, triggering a market correction in equities and bonds. This will likely lead to an increase in uncertainty and volatility across financial markets globally. * Increased military activity between Iran and Saudi Arabia with reports of escalation from multiple sources. * A significant spike in oil prices (over 15%) within the next week, exceeding pre-conflict levels. * A sudden increase in geopolitical risk premiums across various asset classes. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% The conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia r (12% model probability, not a guarantee)

Боуман из ФРС говорит, что слишком рано судить о влиянии войны с Ираном на инфляцию

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