Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Increased foreign borrowing leads to greater demand for Chinese yuan-denominated debt instruments. This drives further issuance of panda bonds, potentially leading to a surge in investment from international institutions and governments into China's bond market. * Confirmation indicators: Significant increase in the volume of panda bond issuance by foreign entities (e.g., 50% higher than the previous year) and major Chinese banks actively promoting panda bond offerings to foreign investors. * Time horizon: Within 6 months, we could see a significant increase in the number of panda bonds issued and a further rise in demand for Chinese yuan-denominated debt instruments. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Existing trends in global capital flows continue, with foreign investors continuing to divers (25% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Increased foreign borrowing leads to greater demand for Chinese yuan-denominated debt instruments. This drives further issuance of panda bonds, potentially leading to a surge in investment from international institutions and governments into China's bond market. * Confirmation indicators: Significant increase in the volume of panda bond issuance by foreign entities (e.g., 50% higher than the previous year) and major Chinese banks actively promoting panda bond offerings to foreign investors. * Time horizon: Within 6 months, we could see a significant increase in the number of panda bonds issued and a further rise in demand for Chinese yuan-denominated debt instruments. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Existing trends in global capital flows continue, with foreign investors continuing to divers (55% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Increased foreign borrowing leads to greater demand for Chinese yuan-denominated debt instruments. This drives further issuance of panda bonds, potentially leading to a surge in investment from international institutions and governments into China's bond market. * Confirmation indicators: Significant increase in the volume of panda bond issuance by foreign entities (e.g., 50% higher than the previous year) and major Chinese banks actively promoting panda bond offerings to foreign investors. * Time horizon: Within 6 months, we could see a significant increase in the number of panda bonds issued and a further rise in demand for Chinese yuan-denominated debt instruments. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Existing trends in global capital flows continue, with foreign investors continuing to divers (20% model probability, not a guarantee)